political risk report
Hormuz Trade Remains at Risk
8 pages · Political risk report · November 6, 2026 · 90-day outlook for energy and shipping
What US and Iran negotiations mean for energy and shipping over the next 90 days. Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is the most likely outcome: the US midterm result increases Washington’s incentive to seek an agreement with Iran, but the two governments still disagree over which concessions must come first. Written for energy purchasers, shipowners and charterers, and Gulf-based businesses, with ten linked sources.
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What’s inside >
Seven sections, ten figures and ten linked sources, in eight pages.
Outlook: continued disruption is the most likely outcome over the next 90 days, with moderate confidence and the evidence that would change the call.
The midterms: Democrats won both chambers, new congressional terms begin January 3, 2027, and what Congress can and cannot control.
Sequencing: Tehran’s seven demands against Washington’s nuclear-first position, and a possible interim approach tied to maritime behavior.
Cargoes and sanctions: Hormuz oil flows of 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2 2026 against 21.6 in Q4 2025, weekly transits, bypass routes and OFAC exposure.
Scenarios and actions: central, upside and downside paths, and who should check what in procurement, treasury, shipping and Gulf operations.
